如何解决如何使用寓言r将预测加在一起?
我正在尝试将每个地区和每个季度的预测加在一起。我试图总结一个特定的变量,但这没有用。我也尝试过按区域分组,但我相信要使此方法有效,您需要以某种方式进行汇总。我正在尝试将两个预测加在一起,同时也能够使用precision()来查看准确性的变化。到目前为止,我还没有真正找到一种好的方法。
tourism %>%
filter(Quarter >= yearquarter("2008 Q1")) %>%
filter(Purpose == "Holiday" & State == "New South Wales") %>%
filter(Region %in% c("North Coast NSW","South Coast","Sydney")) %>%
mutate(Demand = case_when(
Region == "Sydney" ~ 0.03*Trips*5,Region == "South Coast"~0.04*Trips*2,Region == "North Coast NSW" ~ 0.04 *Trips*2
)) -> D
DTR <- D %>% filter(Quarter <= yearquarter("2016 Q4"))
DTE <- D %>% filter(Quarter >= yearquarter("2017 Q1"))
m <- DTR %>%
model(m.auto = ETS(Demand),m.AAM = ETS(Demand ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("M")),m.AAdM = ETS(Demand ~ error("A") + trend("Ad") + season("M")))
m %>%
glance()
m %>%
select(m.auto) %>%
glance()
m.auto <- m %>%
select(m.auto)
f <- m %>%
select(m.auto) %>%
forecast(h = 4)
rbind(m.auto %>% accuracy(),f %>% accuracy(data = D))
以下是预测表:
structure(list(Region = c("North Coast NSW","North Coast NSW","Sydney","Sydney"
),State = c("New South Wales","New South Wales","New South Wales"),Purpose = c("Holiday","Holiday","Holiday"),.model = c("m.auto","m.auto","m.auto"),Quarter = structure(c(17167,17257,17348,17440,17167,17440),fiscal_start = 1,class = c("yearquarter","vctrs_vctr"
)),Demand = structure(list(structure(list(mu = 64.5267676142378,sigma = 7.45649497452699),class = c("dist_normal","dist_default"
)),structure(list(mu = 45.7869538723355,sigma = 5.39507245782213),"dist_default")),structure(list(mu = 42.4573776516376,sigma = 5.09748859911909),structure(list(mu = 53.9721361044215,sigma = 6.59826306707935),structure(list(mu = 61.7503906560609,sigma = 6.75515872707897),structure(list(mu = 35.6173573447291,sigma = 3.97232150452371),structure(list(mu = 27.1314815258956,sigma = 3.08272534449931),structure(list(mu = 38.1701802125742,sigma = 4.41547997477935),structure(list(mu = 95.1714054395916,sigma = 8.18541561715263),structure(list(mu = 85.2330580025708,sigma = 8.18541582507749),structure(list(mu = 79.7805187916752,sigma = 8.18541603300235),structure(list(mu = 77.9011650250759,sigma = 8.18541646640782),"dist_default"))),vars = "Demand",class = c("distribution","vctrs_vctr","list")),.mean = c(64.5267676142378,45.7869538723355,42.4573776516376,53.9721361044215,61.7503906560609,35.6173573447291,27.1314815258956,38.1701802125742,95.1714054395916,85.2330580025708,79.7805187916752,77.9011650250759)),row.names = c(NA,-12L),key = structure(list(
Region = c("North Coast NSW","Sydney"),"m.auto"
),.rows = structure(list(1:4,5:8,9:12),ptype = integer(0),class = c("vctrs_list_of","list"))),3L),class = c("tbl_df","tbl","data.frame"),.drop = TRUE),index = structure("Quarter",ordered = TRUE),index2 = "Quarter",interval = structure(list(
year = 0,quarter = 1,month = 0,week = 0,day = 0,hour = 0,minute = 0,second = 0,millisecond = 0,microsecond = 0,nanosecond = 0,unit = 0),.regular = TRUE,class = c("interval","vctrs_rcrd","vctrs_vctr")),response = "Demand",dist = "Demand",model_cn = ".model",class = c("fbl_ts","tbl_ts","tbl_df","data.frame"))
如果您需要更多信息,请告诉我。
版权声明:本文内容由互联网用户自发贡献,该文观点与技术仅代表作者本人。本站仅提供信息存储空间服务,不拥有所有权,不承担相关法律责任。如发现本站有涉嫌侵权/违法违规的内容, 请发送邮件至 dio@foxmail.com 举报,一经查实,本站将立刻删除。